Hungary faces diplomatic embarrassment after Turkey swiftly ratified Sweden’s NATO bid, leaving Hungary as the sole holdout. Orban’s face-saving attempt to force a gesture from the Swedes received short shrift.
A perfect diplomatic storm hit Hungary on Tuesday night, as Turkey’s parliament rushed to ratify Sweden’s NATO application, leaving Hungary, which together with Turkey has dragged its feet on ratification for about 18 months, found itself in the awkward position of being the final hurdle.
Hungarian government officials had previously assured that Hungary would not be the last to ratify Sweden’s bid to join NATO. But Viktor Orban’s isolation within Euro-Atlantic alliances appears to have deepened as the sudden move by his old friend and ally, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, left him out in the cold.
News of Turkey’s sudden ratification set off a frenzy of diplomatic activity in Budapest. Prime Minister Orban on Tuesday formally invited Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to visit Hungary “to negotiate accession” and improve bilateral relations. Yet Sweden’s foreign minister retorted that there was no need for such a visit.
NATO allies, too, have stepped up pressure on the Hungarian government. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron – who is on good terms with the Hungarian government – phoned Orban to speed up the process, possibly carrying a message from Washington. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also urged the Hungarian parliament to “do its homework”.
The Hungarian parliament finished debating Sweden’s accession a year ago, and ratification should be a formality if there were the political will. Parliament is currently in recess, the spring session begins on February 26, but the Fidesz majority can decide to call an extraordinary session at any time.
The silence in the pro-government media on Wednesday suggests that the Turkish decision took Orban by surprise. “There is probably a Turkish-US compromise in the background,” Zoltan Kiszelly of the pro-government think-tank Szazadveg told BIRN. “Turkey is in the crosshairs of the US over the Gaza conflict, and a political gesture from Ankara was urgently needed. The US also kept its promise on the [supply of the fighter jets] F-16s.”
Kiszelly argues, however, that Hungary is still holding out for a gesture from Swedish politicians, something that would show that “they consider Hungary a democracy” and that they will refrain from joining the chorus of critics on human rights and democratic backsliding.
Hungarian government spokesman Zoltan Kovacs has previously accused Swedish representatives of being too “keen to bash Hungary through diplomatic means, using their political influence to harm Hungarian interests.”
Although Swedish diplomacy has indicated that there is no reason for a prime ministerial visit to Hungary, Kiszelly says the European Council’s extraordinary summit on Ukraine on February 1 could offer a window of opportunity for a bilateral meeting between Orban and his Swedish counterpart. “At the latest, I expect Sweden to become a full member by April 4, which is NATO’s 75th anniversary,” the analyst said.
Hungarian opposition politicians are questioning how Orban can believe he has anything to gain from his continued opposition to Sweden joining. Unlike Turkey, which has demanded tougher anti-terror legislation against Kurdish PKK members exiled in Sweden and the acquisition of a batch of F-16 fighter jets from the US, Hungary has never set any conditions for Sweden, other than a vague “they should make a gesture”.
“The idea of inviting the Swedish prime minister to Hungary to negotiate about NATO membership is a complete misunderstanding. I am afraid that Prime Minister Orban is confusing international politics with his Fidesz parliamentary group, whose members he can summon to his office at will,” Agnes Vadai, a defence expert and member of parliament for the left-liberal Democratic Coalition, told BIRN.
She also believes that the international community, as well as the EU, is simply learning to ignore Hungary. “Sweden is already a de facto NATO member; it has just decided to send troops to the Baltic. It has already overcome Hungarian resistance,” she said.
Vadai believes that Hungary’s delay in ratification is a product of “Orban’s vanity”.
“He wants to be on the front pages of international newspapers, no matter what it means for Hungary and what the consequences of his actions are,” she said, warning that the Swedish government will present a bill later, probably in 2026, when Hungary needs to extend the lease of its Swedish-made Gripen fighter jets.
